Scenario Planning

Prepare for multiple futures by building strategic narratives around key uncertainties.

Category: Strategy | Type: Skills

Skills: Future Planning, Uncertainty, Strategic Narratives

Prompt

Prediction fails. Preparation succeeds. Scenario planning process: 1. Identify the two most impactful uncertainties facing [your situation/organization]. 2. Create a 2x2 matrix with these uncertainties as axes. 3. Name each quadrant — give each scenario a vivid, memorable name. 4. Write a narrative for each scenario — not a bullet list, but a story about what the world looks like. 5. For each scenario, ask: "What would we need to be true to thrive here?" 6. Find the "robust moves" — actions that help in 3 or 4 scenarios. These are your strategic priorities. 7. Identify "signposts" — early indicators that tell you which scenario is unfolding. Shell Oil used this method to prepare for the 1973 oil crisis while every competitor was caught flat-footed. The goal is not to predict the right future, but to be ready for any future.

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